Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 9.292137 10.939315 12.749989 14.882183 17.318077 20.007740 23.195809
2025-01-19 6.834175 8.965158 11.526917 14.809213 18.876298 23.721785 29.899947
2025-01-26 5.656862 8.109802 11.280007 15.622349 21.351887 28.582679 38.316223
2025-02-02 4.783792 7.409066 11.019900 16.252512 23.525898 33.146394 46.673910
2025-02-09 4.169266 6.915358 10.904404 16.973416 25.791623 37.924206 55.611991
2025-02-16 3.503931 6.209841 10.351418 16.948517 26.937539 41.187981 62.658045
2025-02-23 2.868977 5.428684 9.552125 16.417999 27.230689 43.191883 67.989157
2025-03-02 2.338374 4.719021 8.749864 15.753526 27.202367 44.653144 72.550407
2025-03-09 2.023495 4.327047 8.404291 15.759024 28.178297 47.638409 79.516948
2025-03-16 1.769980 4.001567 8.121932 15.821416 29.222241 50.763450 86.851071
2025-03-23 1.543001 3.685878 7.809857 15.784487 30.073656 53.608696 93.882279
2025-03-30 1.286496 3.261477 7.234733 15.201498 29.918456 54.779499 98.265407
2025-04-06 1.124243 3.014316 6.977400 15.194060 30.801574 57.779289 105.909398
2025-04-13 0.981623 2.784106 6.722323 15.160737 31.631191 60.740484 113.670855
2025-04-20 0.932205 2.765528 6.904044 16.004111 34.146544 66.767857 126.960345
2025-04-27 0.870876 2.705621 6.987420 16.652024 36.334258 72.337764 139.745798
2025-05-04 0.821287 2.666399 7.110143 17.389717 38.744018 78.434095 153.751150
2025-05-11 0.726717 2.486851 6.887214 17.364740 39.640542 81.817081 163.107113
2025-05-18 0.614892 2.233158 6.451609 16.823022 39.442726 83.146227 168.816715
2025-05-25 0.512617 1.981707 5.981362 16.144315 38.893374 83.757482 173.215552
2025-06-01 0.456376 1.858850 5.816986 16.149945 39.774202 87.143415 182.901816
2025-06-08 0.409172 1.753941 5.683959 16.213684 40.779385 90.818597 193.296653
2025-06-15 0.363565 1.642856 5.517394 16.175961 41.554140 94.071668 203.029263